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Post by davemorton on Nov 29, 2023 18:59:49 GMT
How many International cricketers have there been? The probability of NONE of them dying on his birthday would be:
P = (364/365)^n where n is that number.
If n = 1000 (and it's more than that), P = 6.43%; if n = 1500, then P = 1.63%. So it's rally surprising that there has only been one. I should be able to work that out, too, but stats make my brain hurt. Always have.
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Post by newby on Nov 29, 2023 20:15:57 GMT
I suspect there have been others but probably players who have lived a longer life. His relatively young age, and the circumstances of his death perhaps added poignancy to the date.
No, I'm not going searching to confirm my theory.
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Post by byased on Nov 29, 2023 20:27:18 GMT
I think the compiler of the book seemed certain there were no others. Of course you can only measure those who have actually died, a large number of international players are still alive. To get two dates the same would double Dave's calculation? I think current living international players need to be on their guard on forthcoming birthdays, lest they appear in a quiz on this message board.
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Post by davemorton on Nov 30, 2023 0:07:24 GMT
Yes, that is a point I had not thought of. If you are alive, you're not dead!
If the number is, say, 400 dead ones, then the probability would be 33.4%, so only one is less unlikely than I thought. That's the probability of no player dying on his birthday, therefore it's 66.6% that at least one did that.
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Post by slowleftarmer on Nov 30, 2023 7:40:17 GMT
I didn't know that about Keith Boyce, such a shame.
Fantastic cricketer, who would have made a fortune in the T20 era. I recall watching him play at Scarborough and he was so lithe, similar in style to Holding perhaps, or is my memory playing tricks on me?
Anyway, I was always reminded of him whenever his doppelganger, Keith Boyce, the Headingley groundsman cropped up in conversation.
Perhaps thats the lead to another cricket related quiz of people involved in the game with the same name. Someone earlier mentioned 3 Matthew Wood's I think.
As a separate old favourite quiz question, which player's first name was an anagram of his second name?
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Post by davemorton on Nov 30, 2023 11:16:18 GMT
Brian Brain.
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Post by hawke on Dec 1, 2023 21:45:50 GMT
looks a good quiz thanks
sorry I have been busy this week and missed its posting
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